APP

Summary AppLovin’s software business has inflected to much higher growth levels. The inflection is being driven by the company’s use of AI as part of its Axon and the company’s AppDiscovery offering. The company is likely gaining significant share from Unity which is struggling with its software products as well as recent unforced business errors.…

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Where does Unity Software go after combining with Iron Source Willie Sutton was known as an innovative bank robber using innumerable disguises and multiple scenarios. Of course he was credited with the quote about robbing banks “because that’s where the money was.” The “theft” of Iron Source (IS) by Unity Software (U) is not perhaps as…

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One subscriber suggested to me recently that it was time to adjust the portfolio to the realities of the current environment. Basically, that means more of a focus on free cash flow margins, and less of a focus on turnaround or developing stories. I thank the subscriber very much for giving me a kick in…

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Reviewing a recent visit with Iron Source Management There is not much positive to say for the current phase of the market. Indiscriminate selling, margin calls, an atmosphere of fear. While the Fed’s latest set of what are called dot plots is relatively benign, investors seemingly believe more apocalyptic scenarios. More and more economists, corporate…

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It can be difficult to write about earnings and forecasts when investors seem fixated on risks and geopolitical fears. While I can offer some kind of informed opinion on inflation and interest rates and economic trends, my crystal ball goes cloudy when I try to prognosticate about the future actions of a risk tolerant dictator. …

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It’s a couple of days after a bit of sentiment reversal. So many names of various kinds including IT stocks had been hugely oversold, and perhaps over shorted. I get asked “is it over.” Usually, after this kind of precipitous sector rotation, most technicians expect to see at least some kind of retest. It isn’t…

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Summary The thesis here is that high growth names are able to produce sizeable returns despite the headwinds of inflation and higher interest rates. The thesis is supported by notable valuation compression in many names that has proceeded unremarked through much of 2021. In addition, most high growth companies are expanding their TAMS by aggressive…

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