Upstart, one of the principal fintech names on which we have focused, and a component of our high-growth portfolio, preannounced very disappointing financial results for the quarter that ended 6/30/22. Revenues of $228 million were almost 25% less than the forecast the company had provided on May 9, 2022. The company has projected a net…
Does have Affirm have a secret sauce? Tuesday, May 24th, has been another day of fear and doubt and pain for those investors remaining in the high-growth IT space. So why write an article now about Affirm (AFRM), its outlook and its opportunities when investors are clearly making bets outside of high-growth tech. There seems…
An implosion for the ages? I have seen quite a bit in 30 years of reviewing tech stocks. Volatility is a fact of life. Drawdowns are a fact of life. I first recommended Upstart (UPST) about a year ago, after the company reported quarterly earnings and the shares were at $103. And then back in October,…
In the interest of time, I am not going to try to report and analyze every component of Upstart’s earnings release. The stock is down 44%, and the question is what should holders do at this point. While there were a couple of encouraging signs amidst the carnage this is a market environment where any…
This has been a painful day in a painful week. Stocks are once again declining because the yield on the long bond has risen by about 8 bps to 2.91%. The yield is down a little from its high point, of 2.95%. While the market is down overall, tech stocks again are the focus of…
The performance of equity investments have gone from bad to worse. At this point, it would appear that fears are now focused on the potential for a significant recession that will dramatically reduce earnings and perhaps lead to liquidity issues on the part of some major businesses. Will that happen? Obviously issues such as $4/gallon…
Summary Shares of High-Growth software companies have led the market down so far in 2022. The decline in valuations and absolute share prices has been at rates that rival anything in the recent past. This decline has occurred against a background of strong and growing demand in the Information Technology (IT) space. Ironically, software demand…
Summary The valuations of high growth IT names have crashed. There has been little to be seen in the way of a bottom with share prices of IT names declining every day so far in this young year. Valuations, as I see them, looked at in terms of Enterprise Value/Sales (EV/S) ratios, but also free…
We finally pulled the trigger on a portfolio rebalance, eliminating our position in the shares of Veeva, and adding to our holding of Upstart. Overall, the transaction reduced our margin balance by a minimal level of just over $600. Our margin balance is as high as I find comfortable given the vicissitudes that market has…
In November 1942, in the wake of the battle of El Alamein, although before the Soviet triumph at what was then Stalingrad (today Volgograd), Winston Churchill gave one of his more famous speeches at the Lord Mayor’s banquet at the Mansion House. He declared at the time, “This is not the end, It is not even the…