In the interest of time, I am not going to try to report and analyze every component of Upstart’s earnings release. The stock is down 44%, and the question is what should holders do at this point. While there were a couple of encouraging signs amidst the carnage this is a market environment where any…
Shift4 reported its results before the market opened on Thursday. The results were a significant beat in terms of earnings, and a reasonable beat in terms of net revenues as well. The company didn’t change its full year guidance, an excess of so-called prudence on the part of the CFO in my judgement, and highly…
Many of the larger tech companies have now reported their earnings. If there are two consistent threads they are that overall, earnings have been a bit better than some have feared and that while some of the consumer focused tech vendors have encountered a variety of headwinds, for the most part that hasn’t been the…
Shift4 in the context of rerating and valuation implosion The stock market is an efficient engine for valuing assets. That is one of the first things taught to students of investment management. What is less frequently taught is the role of sentiment, and algorithmic trading in valuation. Currently, the most popular sentiment gauge remains at…
Sometimes the consensus is right. And sometimes I have to acknowledge mistakes and move on. Yes, Teladoc shares seem very “cheap.” And cheap was what had seduced me as well. But the fact is, that there is simply no excuse for the guidance and commentary that TDOC management made. I simply can’t trust them. No,…
Looking at Splunk in the context of the great rerating It was reported Thursday by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), that bullish sentiment had reached its lowest point in the past 30 years. At the moment, the sentiment gauge shows that just 16% of investors are bullish while 48% of investors are bearish. The…
This has been a painful day in a painful week. Stocks are once again declining because the yield on the long bond has risen by about 8 bps to 2.91%. The yield is down a little from its high point, of 2.95%. While the market is down overall, tech stocks again are the focus of…
Last week was another disappointing week for the markets in general, and for IT names in particular. Although our high-growth portfolio did manage to appreciate by 1.8%, it is still down by more than 25% so far this year, and by 21% since 8/20/21. Those results are more or less consistent with the overall tech ETF, the IGV, which lost 2% last week and has lost about 20% since the start of the year, and 22% since last August. The World Cloud ETF broke even last week, but it has lost 26% since the start of the year and has lost 32% since August 20th of last year.
Summary nCino reported its fiscal Q4 results at the end of March. The company once again surpassed expectations for both earnings and revenues. The company’s calculated billings metric was exceptionally strong, with deals being closed with Wells Fargo and with CIBC among others. The company forecast apples to apples revenue growth for this fiscal year…
There is a saying that April is the cruelest month. The poem from which the saying comes is called “The Wasteland,” and so it seemed were the valuations of many of the IT names that make up our high-growth portfolio last week. The rally that had carried through from mid-March to April 1st burst as investors…