A bit of alliteration-perhaps intentional. I have gotten more than a few questions on what tariffs will mean for the market-and very specifically the Ticker Target High Growth portfolio. In the short term I imagine the impact is obvious. The Ticker Target high growth portfolio has fallen about 17% since it hit a high little…
Summary Pagaya’s recent results and strong 2025 outlook hinge on ending write-offs and impairment charges, with management confident in improved visibility and reduced future impairments. Pagaya’s AI-driven subprime lending model, despite past transparency issues and significant impairment charges, shows promise with improved credit standards and a diverse range of lending partners. The company’s strategic partnerships…
The earnings of several tech companies have been released this afternoon. Confluent’s earnings were reasonable, and belied some concerns that have held the shares in check for a few weeks. Guidance, while typically muted was better than feared. Upstart reported very strong numbers and upside guidance; the shares were up 27% pre-market. Surprisingly weak numbers were reported by Blackline, and its…
1) Pagaya I had the opportunity to speak to a couple of the Pagaya management team yesterday. Of course the principal issue that was discussed was the impairment charges. I will begin by discussing what went wrong. Needless to say, I have gotten many questions about Pagaya. Some have questioned the company’s legitimacy. Others want to…
Pagaya shares have cratered this morning in the wake of a poorly received earnings report. The issue is and has been the fair value adjustment which was an elevated $70 million last quarter. This has spooked investors that Pagaya has underwritten loans to borrowers who aren’t repaying. Based on questions I have received, I know…
Last week was no doubt stressful to all subscribers who are or have been holders of Pagaya shares. As the stock fell on Thursday, I arranged a conference call with management. I came away both shaking my head at the share price reaction and being more convinced that the company did the right thing, regardless…
As discussed in the earlier Pagaya post, we took advantage of this morning’s Pagaya valuation implosion and added 800 shares at a price of $10.11. This purchase cost $8095 and brought our margin balance to $287,861. I realize that an 18% loss is painful. That said, I stand by the analysis I presented. I have…
Yesterday after the market closed Pagaya announced that it would be selling what is likely to be $143 million of convertible notes. In addition, the company announced an upsizing of its current term loan facility, while also announcing that it would be paying down at least $270 million of high cost debt-this debt had interest…
Summary Pagaya’s valuation remains low both absolutely and relatively despite strong operational performance due to market sentiment and misconceptions about the fintech space in general, particularly subprime lending and its SPAC origins. The company has the potential to show significant growth in network volume in 2025, particularly in auto lending and POS, with new partnerships…
Pagaya shares have fallen by 17% today after declining 6% on Friday. This is not, repeat not, a function of the company’s earnings report or its outlook I reviewed those on Friday, and my opinion didn’t change over the weekend. What I believe has happened is this. Subscribers may recollect that Pagaya raised money in March through…